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"The Fed is the central bank most able to chart its own course," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note Wednesday. It was the first time the Riksbank had cut since 2016 and takes its main policy rate down to 3.75%. The Riksbank's move was the second central bank cut of the year, as the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate a quarter point in March in what was seen as a surprise action. Reductions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to come next, possibly within a month. "With the exception of Japan, developed markets are embarking on a program of rate cuts," Hollenhorst said.

Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, BOE, Mark, Bailey, Citi's Hollenhorst, Christine Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Lagarde, Hollenhorst Organizations: U.S . Federal, Citigroup, Citi, Sweden's, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ Meet the woman who engineered Russia's wartime economy and helped secure another term for Putin
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina has played a key role in stabilizing Russia's sanctions-hit economy. It's also aimed at the woman behind him: Elvira Nabiullina, the country's central bank governor, who plays a chief role in keeping Russia's wartime economy ticking. At the time, she was the first woman to lead a Group of Eight, or G8, central bank. In 2015, Euromoney, a finance trade publication, named Nabiullina Central Bank Governor of the Year. In December, she issued a warning that Russia's economy was at risk of overheating.

Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, —, Putin, It's, Nabiullina, Daniel McDowell, McDowell, wined, Christine Lagarde, Nabiullina —, Richard Portes, Portes —, Portes, Anders Åslund, Åslund, Leo Tolstoy, Fyodor Dostoevsky, Franz Kafka, Yaroslav Kuzminov, Kuzminov, Nabiullina's, Alan Harvey, Herman Gref —, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Maxim Shemetov, Michel Camdessus, she's, isn't, Sergei Aleksashenko, Alexei Makarkin, Vladimir Pesnya, Nabiulina, let's Organizations: Ukraine, Service, Russian, KGB, Syracuse University, Kremlin, International Monetary Fund, US, London Business School, Moscow Times, Bloomberg, Higher School of Economics, —, Moscow State University, SNS, USSR, Industrial Union Board, Gref, Central Bank Governor, Nabiullina Central Bank Governor, Banker, Central Banker, IMF, Monetary Fund, Financial Times, Government, Political Technologies, Wall Street Journal, RBC, Politico Europe Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia, Brussels, Nabiullina, Swedish, Moscow, Ufa, Central Russia, Tatars, Crimea, Euromoney, Europe, steadying

☆ Crude edges higher on supply concerns as shipping disruptions continue
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Third-generation oilman walks past a working pumpjack at his oilfield in Taft, Kern County, California on Sept. 21, 2023. Oil prices ticked up in early Asian trading on Monday, extending gains for the third straight day, as shipping disruptions spurred supply worries. Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.69 a barrel by 0106 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) climbed 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $77.73 a barrel. Iran-aligned Houthis have continued their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, and while the Israel-Hamas war has not significantly constrained oil supply, it has increased freight rates and shipping time, leaving barrels on the water for longer. In public, Israel and Hamas continued to take positions far apart on a possible truce, while blaming each other for delays.

Persons: Brent, Joe Biden, Jeffrey Schmid Organizations: U.S, West Texas, , Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Taft, Kern County , California, Iran, Red, Israel, U.S, Gaza, Qatar, , Kansas

☆ Central bank blunders undermine tough rate talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Comments by central bankers underline their desire to keep interest rates high until price growth quiesces. Policymakers’ recent mistakes mean they will struggle to convince investors their tough talk is real. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell says his fellow policymakers are “not thinking about rate cuts at all”. In May, after another U.S. regional bank failure, markets concluded that the Fed’s rate hike at the beginning of that month would be its last. Respected central bankers might be able to convince markets that these numbers don’t portend imminent rate cuts.

Persons: Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Powell, backtrack, –, Lagarde, Treasuries, BoE, Bailey, Ben Bernanke, Jacob Frenkel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, titans, Deutsche Bank, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, LSEG, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, ECB, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, European, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Bailey, United States, Ukraine, Central

Periods of high inflation would offset those when inflation was low as occurred between the financial crisis and the pandemic. Those concerns may not matter anymore if the pandemic has driven inflation and interest rates chronically higher. Speaking at a Boston Fed labor market conference in November, Kohn said the new framework showed the risks of not keeping inflation at bay to begin with. "Probing" for maximum employment "can't ignore...inflation risks," Kohn said, calling for a return to a strategy disavowed in the last review. "I think preemptive tightening is best-practice central banking, and I hope they return to allowing that."

Persons: Joshua Roberts, Jerome Powell, There's, Miesha Williams, Powell, Charles Evans, Evans, Fed, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Donald Kohn, Kohn, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Spelman College, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Chicago, Cleveland Fed, Boston Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta

FILE PHOTO: A screen showing the Hang Seng stock index is seen outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. They include Australia, South Korea and India, as well as China's 'unofficial' PMI. Foreigners already appear to be voting with their feet - China just recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- PMIs for Australia, South Korea, India, China- Japan unemployment (October)- Indonesia inflation (October)By Jamie McGeever Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, Dow Jones, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, National Bureau, Statistics, Japan's Nikkei, U.S ., Thomson, Reuters Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, India, Asia

OMFIF outlined a dark mood among the funds, with more than half expecting a global economic recession in the next 12 months. None reported a positive outlook for China's economy, citing the regulatory environment and geopolitics among primary factors dissuading them from investing. "(Investors) are now focused on how to deal with a macroeconomic environment that is stuck in a higher-for-longer interest rate cycle," the report said. Overall, sovereign funds fared better than their public pension peers, OMFIF added. The UAE's Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Saudi Public Investment Corporation grew by 13.8% and 12.9% respectively, gaining over $200 billion between them.

Persons: David Morley, OMFIF, Libby George, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Investors, Official Monetary, Financial, OMFIF, Caisse, outsized, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Saudi Public Investment Corporation, Thomson Locations: China, India, Middle East, Abu Dhabi

In Hungary, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy is under pressure from Viktor Orban's government to cut rates further ahead of local and European Parliament elections next year. Reuters GraphicsTANGIBLE BENEFITSA 2021 World Bank survey found that political meddling in central bank policy led to sustained periods of high inflation in emerging market economies such as Turkey and Argentina. "Attempts to bring the president of the NBP before the State Tribunal can be directly interpreted as an attack on the independence of the central bank," the spokesman said. How those premia evolve will depend partly on how politics in Poland and Hungary is perceived by investors to influence the central banks in the months to come. "Everything else being equal, the less independent the central bank, the more real yield you need to have to be compensated for the risk," said Arif Joshi at Lazard Asset Management.

Persons: Adam Glapinski, Gyorgy Matolcsy, Viktor Orban's, Donald Tusk's, Karen Vartapetov, Paul Gamble, Glapinski's, Glapinski, Marta Kightley, Orban, Peter Virovacz, Arif Joshi, Karol Badohal, Gergely, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: WARSAW, Law and Justice, U.S . Federal Reserve, EU, Sovereign, Investor, Emerging, Fitch, Local, ING, Lazard Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Hungarian, Poland, Hungary, BUDAPEST, Europe, Turkey, Argentina, WARSAW

Speaking on CNBC, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also said the U.S. central bank must be "patient and resolute, and I wouldn't take additional firming off the table." Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure was 3.4% in September, down from its 7.1% peak last summer, but above the central bank's target. And he expressed increased confidence that the Fed can meet its inflation goal without the kind of rise in unemployment seen in the U.S. central bank's prior battles with inflation. Speaking on Thursday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, one of the central bank's more hawkish policymakers, said she had not yet assessed whether she would continue to pencil in a further rate hike. Fresh economic and interest rate projections are due to be the released at the Dec. 12-13 policy meeting.

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Susan Collins, Collins, Austan Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Pete Schroeder, Dan Burns, Balazs Koranyi, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, San Francisco Fed, CNBC, Boston, Deutsche Bank, Chicago Fed, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S

☆ Want to know what Jerome Powell will do next? Here are the 10 academic journals the Federal Reserve pulls its inflation playbook from.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The key to those predictions is the Federal Reserve and the monetary policy Jerome Powell will enact next year as he fights to get inflation down to a target of 2%. Clearly, anticipating the Fed's next move is far from simple, even for Wall Street pros. While government data is clearly an important source of data for central bankers, a less-understood resource is academia. Understanding which of these resources central bankers rely on can provide insight into upcoming monetary policy moves. That way they could find the signal in all the noise and focus only on the academic journals really driving public monetary policy.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Wall, Business, Federal Reserve, UBS, Fed, Bank of International

People walk past the new headquarters of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in Canary Wharf, London, Britain, September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Alishia Abodunde/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Move follows Hungary govt exit from Erste unitGovt raising financing for airport transactionExit 'good news' for sector's stability -EBRDBUDAPEST, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is selling its 15% stake in Erste Group Bank's (ERST.VI) Hungarian unit back to the Austrian group after the Hungarian government's recent exit from the bank, a top EBRD official told Reuters. Austrian lender Erste said on Friday it was repurchasing a 15% stake in its Hungarian subsidiary, currently held by Hungarian state-owned Corvinus International Investments. Francis Malige, EBRD managing director of financial institutions, said the investment had been designed to help the Hungarian bank recapitalise while supporting a positive relationship with the authorities. "We received a call notice from Erste last Friday and are proceeding with the sale of our stake to the group, based on terms agreed during our 2016 investment."

Persons: Alishia, Viktor Orban, Marton Nagy, Francis Malige, Malige, Orban, Gergely Szakacs, Louise Heavens Organizations: European Bank for Reconstruction, REUTERS, Erste Group, Reuters, Economic, Budapest Airport, Austrian, Erste, International Investments, Erste Bank, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, Hungary, Erste, BUDAPEST, Austrian, Hungarian, Erste Bank Hungary

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - If the notorious 'term premium' is evaporating again, then last month's bond rout may just have been a nightmare. "If that's coming from term premium and it's tightening, then we have got to take that into account." As Summers estimated this week, a term premium just back at 60-year averages would put it at 150bps - 130bps above current levels. Morgan Stanley estimates an additional near $1 trillion in gross debt sales from G7 governments are coming down the pike next year. Morgan Stanley chart on G7 debt sales in 2024Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Christopher Waller, Larry Summers, selloff, York Fed's, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, Summers, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, ., The, NY, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Congress, Thomson Locations: York, midyear, 150bps

☆ A former Fed trader predicts mounting US debt will worsen the bond-market crash. He shares which Treasury duration investors should buy to eventually profit from rising prices.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The central bank extended its pause on interest-rate hikes , trampling expectations of higher rates and causing investors to lock down higher yields while they still can. Joseph Wang, a former trader on the Fed's Open Market Trading Desk, says other than that, Powell's speech was uneventful. While Treasury yields have been dropping all week, Wang believes it's a temporary reaction. In the past, if Treasury yields suddenly became very high, banks could step in and buy the bonds. Wang says investors should opt for two-year notes because they're much more sensitive to potential Fed rate cuts, which would increase the price on those bonds.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Joseph Wang, Wang, He's, they've, it's Organizations: Fed, Treasury Locations: Fedguy.com

☆ NY Fed Can Cut off Puerto Rican Bank in Venezuela-Related Crackdown -US Judge
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Oct. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +2 min

"Accepting deposits from and providing financial services to a financial institution with BSJI's record of noncompliance exposes the FRBNY and the financial system to risk," Koeltl wrote. The New York Fed agreed to keep the bank's master account open until Koeltl ruled on the preliminary injunction motion. The New York Fed did not immediately respond to similar requests. In 2019, the New York Fed said it would stop approving new master accounts for Puerto Rican offshore banks because of sanctions aimed at ousting Venezuela's socialist President Nicolas Maduro. The case is Banco San Juan Internacional Inc v Federal Reserve Bank of New York et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No, 23-06414.

Persons: Jonathan Stempel, John Koeltl, BSJI, Koeltl, Nicolas Maduro, Diane Craft Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, District, Banco San Juan Internacional, New York, New, Fed, New York Fed, Venezuela's, Banco San Juan Internacional Inc, Reserve Bank of New, Court, Southern District of Locations: U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Puerto Rican, Venezuela . U.S, Manhattan, Venezuela, OPEC, Reserve Bank of New York, Southern District, Southern District of New York, New York

☆ NY Fed can cut off Puerto Rican bank in Venezuela-related crackdown -US judge
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Jonathan Stempel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] The entrance to The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is seen in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. The New York Fed agreed to keep the bank's master account open until Koeltl ruled on the preliminary injunction motion. The New York Fed declined to comment. In 2019, the New York Fed said it would stop approving new master accounts for Puerto Rican offshore banks because of sanctions aimed at ousting Venezuela's socialist President Nicolas Maduro. The case is Banco San Juan Internacional Inc v Federal Reserve Bank of New York et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No, 23-06414.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, John Koeltl, BSJI, Koeltl, Nicolas Maduro, Jonathan Stempel, Diane Craft, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, District, Banco San Juan Internacional, New York, New, Fed, New York Fed, Venezuela's, Banco San Juan Internacional Inc, Reserve Bank of New, Court, Southern District of, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, Puerto Rican, Venezuela . U.S, Manhattan, Venezuela, OPEC, Reserve Bank of New York, Southern District, Southern District of New York, New York

[1/5] Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban speaks as he arrives for an EU summit in Brussels, Belgium December 10, 2020. Hours after he spoke, thousands rallied in Hungary's capital Budapest, a liberal stronghold that has largely opposed Orban's agenda. Some voiced fears that Hungary might end up leaving the EU under his rule, a prospect Orban has repeatedly dismissed. Brussels is only a bad contemporary parody," Orban said in a speech in the western town of Veszprem carried exclusively by public television. "Moscow was beyond repair, but Brussels and the EU can still be fixed," Orban said, adding that current leaders of the bloc failed to protect Europe's safety, freedom and wellbeing.

Persons: Viktor Orban, John Thys, Orban, Hungary's, " Orban, Vladimir Putin, Gabor Sebo, Gergely Szakacs, Ed Osmond, Ros Russell Organizations: Pro, EU, U.S, Wood & Company, Thomson Locations: Hungarian, Brussels, Belgium, Budapest, BUDAPEST, Hungary, Hungary's, Moscow, Veszprem, U.S, China, Ukraine, Europe, Russia, EU

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

☆ The Queen’s question returns with a vengeance
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The world’s leading central banks had spent the previous two decades focusing on low inflation, neglecting risks to financial stability. Central bankers counter correctly that predictive accuracy is not the same as explanatory power. Yet it is far from clear how today’s independent central banks should respond to these overtly political struggles. In 2021, when the Phillips Curve was asleep at the wheel, the growth in the money supply was flashing red. The unfortunate truth is that there are many answers to the Queen’s question this time round – but no single magic solution.

Persons: Elizabeth, Prince Andrew , Duke, York, Prince Philip , Duke of Edinburgh, Tom Nicholson, Queen Elizabeth, Ben Bernanke, don’t, Phillips, Isabella Weber, Guido Lorenzoni, Andrew Bailey, monetarism, Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz, Winston Churchill, Bernanke, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum 私, 「 Organizations: Westminster Abbey, REUTERS, Reuters, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Phillips, University of Massachusetts Amherst, University of Chicago, MIT, United, 「 Reuters Locations: Westminster, London, Britain, British, Central, Ukraine, Paris, United States

The central bank's quest for a "soft landing" of more slowly rising prices and continued economic growth looks increasingly probable. In fact, the U.S. may hit a sweet spot just as the 2024 presidential election campaign crescendos next year. Rather than cheering, though, after years of economic turbulence since the coronavirus pandemic erupted in 2020, Americans grumble, at least if you ask them about the economy. With fast rising prices and the end of an array of pandemic-era government benefit programs, inflation-adjusted household income fell last year, and the poverty rate increased. A Biden adviser said the White House understands that the economy and inflation are a critical issue, and the campaign has a big media push planned on "Bidenomics."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, crescendos, grumble, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jimmy Carter's, Ronald Reagan, George H, Bush, Democrat Bill Clinton, Clinton, Biden, They've, that's, Robert Shiller, stupidly, Shiller, Powell, Howard Schneider, Trevor Hunnicutt, Heather Timmons, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Reuters, Republican, Biden, Democrat, U.S . Consumer, Yale University, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, U.S

[1/2] A general view of Polish shoe retailer CCC shop is pictured, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in Warsaw, Poland, September 8, 2020. "Let me tell you, there was a time when I couldn't even afford to buy salmon, for example. Buczek has benefited from the fact that PiS has raised her pension as part of hefty welfare spending moves which, opinion surveys show, are easing Poles' concerns over high inflation. The Polish minimum wage, already the highest in central Europe, will rise by nearly a fifth next year. With many houseowners on variable loan rates, Warsaw recently extended a scheme for mortgage repayment holidays into next year.

Persons: Kacper, Jadwiga Buczek, Buczek, PiS, Steffen Dyck, Adam Glapinski, Fitch, Federico Barriga Salazar, Andrzej Kuzniak, Moody's Dyck, Kacper Pempel, Jan Strupczewski, Gergely, Mark John, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Justice, European Union, European Commission, National Bank of, Sovereign Risk, Moody's, International Monetary Fund, Civic Coalition, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, WARSAW, Poland's, Europe, NBP, Brussels

Member of the rate-setting Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary Gyula Pleschinger speaks during an interview with Reuters in Budapest, Hungary, September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Krisztina Than Acquire Licensing RightsBUDAPEST, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Hungary's central bank could cut its base rate to 10-11% by the end of the year from 13%, a rate-setter told Reuters, warning however against big or unexpected moves amid the fallout from a larger-than-expected rate cut in Poland last week. Once that alignment takes place, the NBH will simplify its policy toolkit further, which could include making the interest rate corridor around its base rate symmetrical, he said. "From that point onwards, we will take all of our steps in a very serious, data-driven mode, looking at the market, tracking the market," Pleschinger said. Asked about the fallout from the National Bank of Poland's much-larger-than-expected 75 bps interest rate cut last week that saw regional currencies weaken, Pleschinger said Hungary's central bank should tread carefully.

Persons: National Bank of Hungary Gyula Pleschinger, Gyula Pleschinger, unwinding, Pleschinger, Disinflation, Gergely Szakacs, Hugh Lawson Organizations: National Bank of Hungary, Reuters, REUTERS, Rights, European, National Bank of, Thomson Locations: Budapest, Hungary, Poland, National Bank of Poland's

☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely. The economy was expected to expand by 2.0% this year and 0.9% in 2024, according to the poll.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Brett Ryan, Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi's Hollenhorst, Prerana Bhat, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Shaloo, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Index, Citi, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S

☆ Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Prerana Bhat | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Only one said the Fed would cut rates this year. Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely.

☆ Europe's weaker economy limits fallout of US bond rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-30 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Last week, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched their highest relative to Germany's since December. For rate-sensitive short-dated German bond yields yields are even down 17 bps in August as weak data has raised expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike pause in September. SPILLOVERBofA, Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect Treasury yields to end the year slightly below current levels. Barclays's Khanna estimates German bond yields would have been 50-60 bps lower had they only been driven by domestic factors. The spillover from higher Treasury yields is more challenging elsewhere.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mauro Valle, Valle, Salman Ahmed, Rohan Khanna, Fitch, Mondher, SPILLOVER BofA, Goldman Sachs, Jackson, Barclays's Khanna, Frederik Ducrozet, Ataru Okumura, Yoruk, Chiara Elisei, Junko Fujita, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, Generali Investment Partners, European Central Bank, Fidelity International, U.S, Fitch, AAA, Vontel Asset Management, Barclays, Treasury, Federal Reserve, ECB, Pictet Wealth Management, of Japan, Nikko Securities, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Europe, Germany, Britain, Germany's, It's, Italy, France, Japan, Amsterdam, London, Tokyo

Since 2007, worldwide public debt has ballooned from 40% to 60% of GDP, on average, with debt-to-GDP ratios even higher in the advanced countries. That includes the United States, the world's biggest economy, where government debt is now more than double the nation's yearly economic output. Reuters GraphicsDespite mounting worries about the growth-crimping implications of high debt, "debt reduction, while desirable in principle, is unlikely in practice," Serkan Arslanalp, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, and Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in a paper. Inflation, unless it surprises to the upside over an extended period, does little to reduce debt ratios, and debt restructuring for developing countries has become more elusive as the pool of creditors has broadened, Arslanalp and Eichengreen wrote. "High public debts are here to stay," they wrote.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jackson, Barry Eichengreen, Eichengreen, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Kansas City Federal, International Monetary Fund, University of California, Thomson Locations: Saudi, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, United States, Berkeley

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